French election? It's all about Europe in the end...

Where does one even begin to discuss the drama that just unfolded before our very eyes in Paris? Hollande's victory now cements a widely-expected change in the French political landscape.

But what changes can we expect? With Hollande returning socialism to French political life, we can expect the usual symptoms of spending, reaffirmed with promises that this will make all the difference. We can expect more "community" based measures, which ultimately, the wealthier part of French society will pay for, with their expected 75% tax rate. We can also expect other "bad" groups to be expected to pay, i.e. the financial sector, as Hollande will stubbornly introduce a Tobin tax on financial transactions in France, even if he can't first secure it at the European level.

However, hiding behind this wonderful illusion that spending solves all problems is the reality that you cannot spend what you don't have, so as well as increasing taxes you can expect the new French administration to borrow. Except that's not as easy as it once was, with the Euro debt crisis meaning that France is already up to its eyeballs...in debt.

As a consequence, we can expect France to be pushing at the European level for all measures to "save" the euro, which, when translated into French, means extracting money from the other 26 EU member states to save French banks....the more enlightened of us already know however that it's these banks, and not the German/Spanish/Irish/Portuguese/Italian/British ones that have the highest exposure to Greece.

With French banks saved, the French economy is prevented from collapse, and the French Government cannot become any more indebted to saving its own banks, (assuming that the money is eventually transferred from the EFSF/ESM directly to banks to avoid any bailout being recorded on a Government balance sheet) which have failed just as miserably as any "Anglo-Saxon" ones. But, the core problem will remain, and government debt will ensure that this socialist administration will not be able to fulfil its pledges. They will come to understand that if you don't have the money in your piggy bank, you simply cannot have what you want. It's a form of poverty, that some other political philosophies understand well.

Of course, the underlying aim of the French Government in joining the upcoming fiscal union/economic government/full monetary union/bank union or whatever they'll call it is not just to maintain the illusion of an economically strong France, but to continue to cement French political power within the European Union. The French have long benefited from being able to project French post-imperial power through the European project, and they will not let that go easily. Being able to influence the EU to do what France wants is the only real power France has.

If the French Government, in its likely disagreements with austerity-Germany is at risk of losing its influence in Europe and having other countries dictate to it through EU rules, you'll soon see just how much "solidarity" the French really believe in. They'll stamp their feet and make threats....

It's going to be an interesting few months, as the French desperately try to hang on to their influence as the Germans lead the way - but they won't like the German economic cure, so expect blackmail of some sort. France wants the political influence and the economic power - but you are in debt dear France, so you'll have to choose what is most important. You cannot have your cake and eat it.

In conclusion though, I sense that the idea of Europe is the most important thing. And the French will not sacrifice that for a few promises of government spending. So all Europe needs to do is to help Hollande save face by keeping his borrowing costs low so he can mortgage the next two generations of French children. With the EU extracting political power from France as its price of solving this crisis (Germany hiding behind the EU) and seizing the crisis as the moment it has been waiting for to build its federation, whatever Hollande promises, this French administration will be like the last one - all about Europe in the end....

As the Sun says goodbye - why I ditched Labour.

So the Sun has decided to ditch Labour for the Tories. A long overdue decision, and simply a reflection of the once-again changing political times. I agree with the decision, because it is clear to me that Brown simply cannot live up to what he says he can - he mentions "policies," but the time has passed to make any real difference - and we are left with many of the same challenges as twelve years ago.

To give Labour some credit though, of course it is in the Sun's interest to back who they percieve to be the "winner" and I am slightly cynical as to the ultimate motive - more sales. But putting this aside for a moment, I really do hope that the primary motive of the newspaper is to reflect the collective feelings of their readership, and to present political reality as it is.

Labour was needed in 1997. Hopes were high - achievements have been made. But over the past few years - and particularly since the 2005 election - what a failure. I have a list I made more than a year ago listing what I percieve to be failures - and my attention has been brought to more. To get to the crunch however, my biggest three problems with this government remains their stance towards the EU, their endless attack on civil liberties, and the divison that devolution has created - all policies that might be right in principle, but certainly not in practice.

I personally decided to forget Brown and Labour the day he arrived late to sign the Lisbon Treaty - trying to do it out of the limelight, in such an underhanded manner that HE KNEW how wrong his decision was. This is the moment that people will not forget Brown, for its effects will be felt for years to come. My decision is not just based on the classic argument of sovereignty, but on the idea that what Lisbon advocates is simply not what we want as a people from the process of European integration!

Now we just have to wait and see what Cameron does when he refers to "making a decision at the correct time" in relation to if Lisbon will be ratified before he enters office next year.

The Rubbish Strike

To add insult to injury, as if the Post Office fiasco wasn´t enough.......you have the strikers in Leeds.

I will do something quite uncharacteristic and officially state that I support them. Rubbish collection has been getting worse for years, and at the same time that draconian new rules to separate rubbish have been coming in. How can people comply when the infrastructure simply doesn´t exist to adequately support these wonderful environmentally-friendly ideas in the first place?

Take a look at this article.

Of course I don´t want Leeds to end up a mess, but something must be done. Council tax has risen excessively and the exact services that it is supposed to pay for have declined.

And to think that in Mexico that rubbish collection is far superior. Given, they must become environmentally-friendly here. But a twice-a-week collection where I live, and a daily collection in Mexico City surely isn´t bad. Wouldn´t a twice a week collection in London and Leeds just be heavenly?

Another example of how a developing country shows up the supposed developed and wealthier one.

Leeds residents, good luck in your dispute.

The Post Office

Very sad to see the state of affairs with the Royal Mail. I remember as a child being told of how a first-class stamp on a letter made sure that it could be delivered from London to the Highlands of Scotland by the next day.


Now look at what is going on.

I think this sums it all up for me.........another great British insitution to the wind.......not helped by EU rules on state aid etc. I wonder if France would alow "La Poste" to fall like this.

The whole episode beggars belief.

Until the next post,

A Tory victory..........fantastic!

Well, finally we have the full results of the local Council elections of 2008, where all councils in Wales had elections as well as a very many of them in England, and the Tories have been successful in putting Labour into third place. I must say that I haven't openly expressed my political persuasion for a good ten years, but I am very pleased at the result. Having recently joined the Tory party (and not because I am on a bandwagon or because they are the perfect party, but because I agree with some crucial policy approaches, such as NO to ID cards for the UK) this is fantastic news, capped off with the result in London and Ken Livingstone finally losing his mayoralty.

I did not perceive Ken as a bad person, but after eight years in office I felt a presidential-style approach to his reign at the heart of local government in London, and I felt that he was becoming arrogant, and rather like the Labour Party as a whole, just not listening.

I wish Boris Johnson the best in office, I sincerely hope that he does not make the same mistakes as the Tory party did in the 1990s, the days of sleaze must never return, and nor must the arrogance as it currently exists within the Labour Party - the arrogance that imposed tuition fees of £3000 per year; the arrogance that refused a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty and thus breaking a manifesto promise. I further sincerely hope that the crazy and extreme politically correct ideology that infests Labour can now be readjusted and we can just have some simple common sense without the fear of racism, xenophobia, homophobia and who we might offend influencing everything that is said and done. At the heart of the matter is the fact that we are still a country of free speech and we need to stop the fear to express ourselves, which seems to me to be a uniquely English trait from my perspective. Now it is ridiculous. Let's not be afraid but let's be prepared to defend what we say, and then we might think twice before saying it. It is my desire to see a touch of down-to-earth politics beginning at City Hall; this means getting on with the job at hand and cutting arrogance and fear out of the ability to get results. Good luck to Johnson.